The 2024 Triple Crown will meet its conclusion this Saturday with the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes.
With Belmont Park undergoing a renovation, the race will be held at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York for the first time ever.
The change in venue certainly gives this edition of the Belmont Stakes a different look, but that doesn’t change the fact that this sets up to be a terrific race to bet with half of the 10 horses getting a decent amount of support from punters and pundits.
Which favorite (if any) should you use?
There are two very different horses at the top of the oddsboard for the 2024 Belmont Stakes and they have been drawn next to one another in the starting gate.
There were plenty of skeptics surrounding the morning-line favorite, No. 9 Sierra Leone (9-5), at his chalky price in the Kentucky Derby, but this model of consistency quieted those doubters with a terrific run that saw him finish second to Mystik Dan by a nose.
It’s fair to say that, despite finishing second, Sierra Leone ran the better race.
It’s no guarantee that this Chad Brown trainee runs as well as he did at Churchill Downs, but there is every chance he does considering this race environment should be more to his liking with less traffic and weaker overall competition.
Sierra Leone is a grinder and feels like a safe bet.
The opposite seems true of the second choice No. 10 Mindframe (7-2).
Making just the third start of his career, Mindframe is making a huge leap in class for the Belmont Stakes — but there is a reason.
His first two wins came by a combined 20 lengths and there seems to be a decent chance that this horse is just a freak of nature.
While Sierra Leone is a high-floor horse with a questionable ceiling, Mindframe seems to be on the other end of the spectrum.
He may just blow away the field, but I’m not going to back a horse with a short résumé at this price.
Best bet to win: No. 8 Honor Marie (12-1)
A trendy pick at the Kentucky Derby that never got going, Honor Marie shouldn’t be overlooked in this field.
The fact that he burned plenty of punters at Churchill Downs coupled with some losses to Sierra Leone will likely keep money off him, but that’s fine with me.
It seems OK to forgive Honor Marie for finishing eighth in the Derby despite a terrible trip, and if Sierra Leone isn’t at his best, this is the best closer in the field.
I’m happy to take this number on a horse that was a darling in much more difficult circumstances a month ago.
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Long shot to use in exotics: No. 2 Resilience (10-1)
One of a handful of horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness, Resilience was quietly impressive on the first Saturday in May.
It can’t be overstated how difficult it is to work out a good trip in the Run for the Roses and Resilience fell just short of doing that when he faded late after making his move in the middle of the race.
He was still able to finish a very game sixth and should be able to build off of that and be a factor at a strong price on Saturday.
